Tools
Three interactive models, each built around a decision problem I've encountered in practice rather than a theoretical one.
They aren't predictive instruments. They're closer to thinking aids — ways of making a familiar pressure visible enough to examine.
Together they move across three scales:
• How a system behaves
• How an institution measures
• How a person decides
Waiting List Simulator — Systems
A stochastic queueing model of a healthcare waiting list, treating it as a dynamic system with demand variability, capacity limits, feedback, and non-attendance. It shows why waiting lists behave in ways that simple arithmetic doesn't predict, and where interventions land differently than expected.
The Goodhart Stress-Test — Institutions
A structured reflection on a metric you work with, scored across six dimensions of distortion risk. It doesn't tell you whether a measure is good. It tells you where the pressure sits, and what it's likely to reshape first.
Risk Calibration Mirror (in progress) — Individual judgement
A set of clinical vignettes with timed decisions, designed to surface anchoring drift — how an early impression continues to shape a judgement after the information supporting it has changed.